DataPoint: Impact Analysis of Medicaid Cuts on Nursing Homes
(July 1, 2025) According to a new study, 579 nursing homes nationwide will be at an especially elevated risk of closure due to proposed cuts to Medicaid in the version of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on May 22nd. These homes find themselves in jeopardy due to a high proportion of Medicaid residents (>85 percent), low occupancy rates (<80 percent), and poor quality-ratings (<=2 rating on the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Five-Star Quality Rating System). This conclusion was drawn from a data model engineered by Brown University’s School of Public Health which identified key characteristics of skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) that closed using the most recently available 10 years of national data. This data model was part of a larger request for an impact analysis requested by Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR), Finance Committee member Mark Warner (D-VA), Senate Budget Committee Ranking Member Jeff Merkley (D-OR), and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) in an effort to contextualize the financial stress the Big Beautiful Bill will impose on nursing homes. The 579 facilities are considered high-risk for closure because they meet all three of the identified criteria. However, more than 1,700 SNFs nationwide have a Medicaid payer share greater than 85 percent as of 2023. The analysis was released as the Senate prepared to vote on legislation, now passed, that would cut nearly $1 trillion from the Medicaid program over 10 years, forcing states to make impossible choices about how to provide health care to families. While NY was identified as having seven homes in danger of closure, the dynamics of the characteristics the analysis used to predict closure are likely to play out differently in NY, since occupancy and quality tend to be negatively correlated due to State staffing requirements. The full statement from the Senate Finance Committee can be viewed here, and the full analysis from Brown University can be viewed here.
Contact: Eric Dumas, edumas@leadingageny.org, 518-867-8851