NIC Offers Webinar on Seniors Housing, Demand, and Growth Trends

(July 1, 2025) The National Investment Center for Seniors Housing and Care (NIC) recently offered a webinar that covered a 20-year look-back and a 25-year look-ahead on demand, occupancy, and growth for seniors housing.

Arick Morton, CEO of the NIC MAP Vision project, began by discussing widely experienced stability and downward trends that were seen just before and during the COVID pandemic years. However, since roughly the second quarter of 2022, Mr. Morton argued that population growth trends, occupancy, and rising absorption rates demonstrate that the demand for seniors housing will soon greatly outpace current inventory, leading to a potential 300,000-unit shortfall in coming years. As a note, NIC’s definition of “seniors housing” does not include affordable housing for older adults or standalone nursing homes.

The field is expected to reach a median stable occupancy (90 percent or more) by 2026, a very promising prediction for the immediate term.

Mr. Morton discussed the “rapid rebound” of seniors housing penetration and absorption within the five quarters of full vaccine rollout, owing to the “durability and elasticity of demand” of the field.

Mr. Morton claimed that, as a field, we need to grow seniors housing inventory by 2 times the historic growth rate and 3.5-4 times our current pace of growth, just to maintain 90 percent (stabilized) occupancy.

Partially driving growing penetration and absorption rates, Mr. Morton noted, is shrinking family size and, thus, fewer adult family caregivers to house and care for their aging parents. Additionally, NIC MAP data show that the burgeoning consumer base for seniors housing is increasingly wealthier than prior generations.

Toward the end of the webinar, Mr. Morton made a variety of recommendations for organizations’ strategic planning for growth and gave faux case study examples that walk through growth projections and strategy for key regional markets in the U.S.

Watch the full webinar here.

Contact: Annalyse Komoroske Denio, akomoroskedenio@leadingageny.org, 518-867-8866